Here's the lap times
- 91.3 - too fast first 200 but eased back sensibly in second 200
- 93.6 - oops, slowed too much
- 91.2 - back on pace
- 92.5 - feeling comfortable, decided to not worry about pace - first 2k in 7:40 = 6:10 pace
- 94.2 - lost focus a little thinking about upcoming 2k split time
- 93.5 - second 2k in 7:45 = 6:14 pace
- 91.8 - pushed a little thru the 5k mark, halfway thru this was 5K, in 19:16 - 6:12 pace
- 94.1 - feeling it a little and slowed to keep effort level pretty flat
- 94.7 - third 2k in 7:46 = 6:15 pace
- 94.3 - 94s feeling pretty comfortable, probably easier than this stage of a 10k should be
- 93.5 - fourth 2k in 7:51 = 6:19 pace
- 93.5 - feeling good, time to kick for that final lap
- 82.9 - last lap 5:33 pace! - fifth 2k in 7:37 = 6:08 pace, second 5k was 19:22
Overall time was 38:38, 6:13 pace - first time I've gone under 40 for a 10k. average heartrate was 169, which is a little lower than I'd expect for a 10k race (last 2 have been at least 172) so that shows that it wasn't a 100% all out race effort. I only pushed hard for the last lap, the rest was a solid hard pace (definitely above tempo pace), but I never felt that I was on the edge. Race calculators show this is pretty much the exact equivalent to my recent half marathon time, which I still suspect was a slightly short course., so I am happy with that.
In a 10k race I think I could have gone a little faster than today given some good competetion and a good, honest course - just by pushing my HR to 172 vs 169 should have got me down to about 38 flat. I have a 10k race planned the week before Ottawa, but it is not certified and competetion could be light around 38 pace, so we'll see if I can go 37:xx at that.
This is a Daniels' VDOT of 54.1, which is about where I thought I was. I had hoped to be closer to 55 (10k = 38:06) at this point in my training, but I still have a little ways to go before I'm there (which I knew from the trouble I had during the last track session, which was at VDOT 55 paces). I'm pretty sure I can push it to 55 by Ottawa.
A VDOT of 55 has a marathon predicted time of 2:56:01. However, my research shows that most people underperform in the marathon by about 2 VDOTs (depending on training mileage, and ability to hold it together in a long race) which puts me at about a 3:01:40. So sub 3 at Ottawa is going to be a real goal for me but certainly not easy. A PR (current best 3:06) should definitely be on the cards if I don't blow up shooting for 2:59:59.
31 days to go......