Seattle, here we come!

Seattle marathon is tomorrow at 7am. Should land in time to get to the expo to pickup my bib, buy some GUs (forgot to bring them), then go to the hotel, eat and then try to get some sleep.

Tomorrow will be an early start as I need to get the shuttle out to the start which is south of Seattle. I figure I need to wake up about 4am.

The goal is to run under 3:10, or just under 7:15 mins/mile. This is 12 minutes, or 27 seconds/mile slower than when I ran Chicago two years ago, so in theory it should be doable. However, I haven't trained like I did for that race.

Here is how my weekly mileage for the last 6 months looks compared to previous marathons....

Mileage is way down, especially over the last 10 weeks where I have only gone over 50 miles once. Hopefully mileage isn't the only indicator, if it is I am in big trouble.

Here are some other running measures compared to previous marathons....

Obviously not quite where I wanted to be. The good news is that my recent half marathon time was faster than I have ever run before, so I know I have the speed required. But when I look at the long runs (down 62% from Chicago) and especially the tempo runs (also down 62%) I know I can see some very good reasons to doubt my endurance.

So I am hoping that my better speed and 12 minute cushion get me through what will likely be an uncomfortable last 6 miles. If I can stay conservative for the first 18 miles I think I'll be OK. The plan is to run about 1:35 for the first half and then see how it goes. History says I'll probably start too fast, feel good, keep going and blowup.

But now that I am older and smarter I need to follow the plan so will try to hang with the 3:10 pace group and remember that the goal is a automatic early entry for Boston and not a sub three or PR. Save that effort for Vegas in December.

Guess we'll see....