Scientific Fitness Assessment

So after much analysis of previous training VS racing performance, trending of various charts, large quantities of very dubious science I have come up with a definitive range of how fast I can run a half marathon this Sunday.

Best case 1:24:52 (6:28)

Worst case 1:28:50 (6:47)

• The science behind the best case is a little more "sciency" than the worst case in that it involves more averaging of times vs just picking a few specific data points.
• Now I get to add the fudge factor for "ease of course". This is definitely the easiest half marathon course I have ever done so that also moves me closer to best case scenario.
• Weather is the unknown. All my previous races have been in good/neutral weather. if it's windy all bets are off.

Bottomline is that my goal of 1:27:30 should be very doable, with a good chance of going faster. So I'm tweaking my previous plan a little to start more aggressively to give me a shot at going best case if things don't fall apart. Here's the new scenario, which I think will be fine thru about mile 7-8, and then it is going to get pretty tough.

• Miles 1-4.5 Go out at 6:35 (or faster), push the downhill parts - average 6:32
• Miles 4.5-6.5 Nice downhill - go flat out - average 6:13
• Miles 6.5-10 Hold on at 6:34 (Assess situation at mile 8)
• Miles 10-13.1 Long kick home, go for 6:29
• Overall Time 1:24:59 (6:29)

So wrapping up, here are my overall goals for Sunday

1. New PR - sub 1:29:56 (6:52) - I will be very disappointed if I miss this
2. Sub 1:27:30 (6:40) - I expect to get this
3. Sub 1:26:30 (6:36) - I'll be very happy with this
4. Sub 1:25:00 (6:29) - I'll be ecstatic with this!